Investment approach
One house or eight villas: how many units the market can take
There is no public statistic for the sales pace of villas from 2 M€ in Catalonia, so it is set as an assumption. At one villa sold every 4 months, carrying costs eat 33% of the eight-villa margin.
I found no public sales pace for villas from 2 M€ in Catalonia, so the number of villas in a project is chosen from an assumption about pace and tested for sensitivity. Sales pace (absorción, or absorption rate) is the number of units that sell per month. In the worked example, eight villas at 2.5 M€ each, selling at one villa every 4 months, take 32 months to sell, and carrying the unsold villas eats 1.584 M€ of a 4.8 M€ margin, which is 33%. Below: what is publicly known, how to calculate, and when the price of haste is higher than the price of waiting.
What is publicly known about the sales pace of villas?
There are statements about individual projects; there are no figures on sales speed.
| Project | What has been published | What is missing |
|---|---|---|
| Vallpineda, Sitges | 28 villas, sales from late June 2022, expected sales volume of about 60 M€, handover planned for 2024 (Brains RE News, 20.07.2022) | Pace, transaction prices, actual handover |
| Pearson Paradise, Pedralbes | Three detached villas on one street (Sotheby's International Realty Spain) | Price and sales status on the page |
The average price for those 28 villas at a volume of 60 M€ is about 2,1 M€ per house. That is arithmetic from a press release about a sales plan, not a transaction price. What can be found in open statistics on deals above 1 M€ is covered in the article on the number of deals, and the time on market of expensive houses in the piece on time to sell. The overall market volume for Catalonia is known: in the second quarter of 2026 the registries recorded 26 703 housing transactions (ERI, the registrars' property statistics), but that figure has no share for villas above 2 M€.
How do you calculate how many villas the market can take?
The answer comes not from the number of villas but from the pace and the price of waiting. You take three inputs: the price, the cost per villa, and the monthly cost of carrying an unsold villa.
Worked example, not a forecast. All inputs are assumptions and are rounded: eight villas at 2.5 M€, costs of 1.9 M€ per villa, margin of 4.8 M€. All villas are ready to sell at the same time, and carrying costs run from that moment. Carrying an unsold villa: cost of capital at 6% a year on costs (9 500 € a month) plus 1 500 € a month for security, taxes and utilities, that is 11 000 € a month. Sales are even: the first villa goes after one period, the last after eight.
| Pace, months per villa | Last sale, month | Carrying cost, € | Left of the margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 396 000 | 91,8% |
| 2 | 16 | 792 000 | 83,5% |
| 3 | 24 | 1 188 000 | 75,2% |
| 4 | 32 | 1 584 000 | 67,0% |
| 6 | 48 | 2 376 000 | 50,5% |
Carrying costs equal the margin at a pace of about 12 months per villa. But the margin less often breaks that way and more often breaks on price. A 10% discount on each of the eight villas costs 2 M€. Speeding up even fourfold, from one villa every 4 months to one a month, saves 1.188 M€ in carrying costs, which is less than the cost of the discount.
Which wins: one house or eight villas?
The same calculation for a single house, again on assumptions. Price 6 M€, costs 4.6 M€, margin 1.4 M€, carrying cost 26 000 € a month (6% a year on costs, which is 23 000 €, plus 3 000 € of running costs).
| Time to sale, months | Carrying cost, € | Left of the margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 312 000 | 77,7% |
| 24 | 624 000 | 55,4% |
| 36 | 936 000 | 33,1% |
One house depends on one buyer and one date. Eight villas give more attempts to sell and let you change the price in stages, but they stretch the tail and raise total carrying costs. Which option is better depends on the pace, and here I took the pace as an assumption: it can only be confirmed by presales and the views of two or three brokers. The rules on presales are covered in the article on sobre plano (off-plan) sales.
What speeds up sales and what does not?
What speeds things up is what removes uncertainty: presales under contract, phased handover of four villas rather than one queue, and a fallback exit plan, for example renting (exit plan A/B/C). A discount does not always speed things up: in a thin market the buyers may simply not exist. How to measure liquidity in advance is described in the article on liquidity.
Who is this calculation not for?
A project where the buyer is known in advance: pace is not needed there. Anyone who needs the capital by a specific date: the date of the last sale cannot be set. And anyone expecting public statistics instead of an assumption: for villas above 2 M€ I did not find any, and substituting advertising claims with no dates for them would give false precision.
You can put your own inputs into the investor calculator, and DNPI's approach to house projects is described on the development page.
Questions and answers
How many villas a month sell in Catalonia?
I found no public figure for villas above 2 M€. The overall volume is known: 26 703 housing transactions in Catalonia in the second quarter of 2026 per the registries, but with no share for expensive villas.
Is it better to build eight villas or one?
It depends on the pace. In the example, at one villa every 3 months carrying costs take 25% of the margin, and one villa that takes 24 months to sell takes 45%. Put in your own pace and timeline.
What should you do if sales are slower than planned?
First work out the price of waiting: the carrying cost for a month multiplied by the delay. A discount is applied only if it costs less than waiting. In the example above, even a fourfold speed-up does not meet that condition.
Can you rely on press releases about projects?
As evidence that a project exists, yes. As a sales pace, no: press materials have no sales timelines and no transaction prices.
Where do you start when calculating a multi-villa project?
With three inputs: the villa price, its cost, and the monthly carrying cost. Then set the pace and see at what pace the project stops holding.
